Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c9a…edf6 weather 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+3%) realized +$37 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day185.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -20.1% -27.7% 25% 25% -11.5%
≤30d 4 -20.1% -27.7% 25% 25% -11.5%
≤90d 4 -20.1% -27.7% 25% 25% -11.5%
all 4 -20.1% -27.7% 25% 25% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover185.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 25% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 25% -20.0%
15% -40.9% 0% -27.7%
20% -46.7% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions25
Markets (closed)4 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day185.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? Yes 49¢ 66¢ $39 $53 +$14 (+35%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? Yes 19¢ 57¢ $17 $53 +$35 (+205%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $44 $39 −$5 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 30? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? No 70¢ 62¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 29? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $9 $12 +$4 (+42%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 29? Yes 41¢ 99¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+142%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-49%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 29? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $12 $8 −$3 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 30? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 30? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-71%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 29? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 29? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 29? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-90%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 30? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 29? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 29? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 29? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 29? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 29? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on June 29? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 29 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 29? Jun 29 $84 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $17 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 41m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL Yes 56¢ $13 54m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $106 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $32 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 29? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.02 · official $231.73 (match) · 186 history records