Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c9b…7272 sports 900 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$311 (-2%) realized −$319 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%471W / 418L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$90
14 days−$222
30 days−$585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$696
other 18% +$208
world 4% +$16
crypto 2% −$148
politics 1% −$54
tech 0% −$15
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 44% -13.8%
≤30d 613 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 50% -15.2%
≤90d 889 -4.1% -13.2% 53% 51% -14.4%
all 889 -4.1% -13.2% 53% 51% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 51% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 47% -22.6%
15% -29.1% 40% -30.0%
20% -36.0% 33% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$319
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses471 / 418
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions11
Markets (closed)889 / 900
History coverage43d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 889 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MLB: Scorigami in 2026? Yes 8¢ 29¢ $10 $34 +$24 (+245%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 56¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 33¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-35%)
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? Yes 62¢ 54¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 28¢ $15 $6 −$8 (-57%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 21¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+88%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Atlanta Dream 57¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $40 +$27 +66%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$15 +99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$22 +54%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$4 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$15 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $7 +$7 +105%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$7 +33%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$35 +35%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 +$68 +149%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$9 -87%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$12 -78%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$17 +109%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$19 +61%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$44 +43%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$6 -58%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$36 -72%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$6 +40%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $35 +$22 +63%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 57¢ $4 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $15 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $67 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $10 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $5 6h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $5 7h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $9 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $31 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL South Africa 100¢ $27 7h
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $7 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $10 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $15 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $15 13h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 13h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 13h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 13h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 73¢ $20 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $15 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $136 21h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 10¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.20 · official $112.94 · 2101 history records