Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9c9c…c3b3 sports 739 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,912 (+1%) realized +$1,889 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate88%639W / 90L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$64
14 days+$77
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$1,848
other 42% −$28
world 1% −$2
politics 1% +$13
finance 0% −$23
crypto 0% +$6
weather 0% −$2
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +19.8% +8.4% 95% 3% -9.3%
≤30d 109 +11.0% +0.4% 87% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 404 +1.7% -8.0% 93% 1% -9.5%
all 729 +0.6% -8.9% 88% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -8.8%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.5%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$1,286
Realized+$1,889
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses639 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions10
Markets (closed)729 / 739
History coverage152d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 729 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $695 $696 +$1 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? No 94¢ 96¢ $196 $198 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $172 $186 +$15 (+9%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $149 $149 +$0 (+0%)
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will DR Congo reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $103 −$14 -14%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $2,018 +$2 +0%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 20 $418 $0 +0%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,747 +$2 +0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $552 +$1 +0%
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $729 +$1 +0%
Will Jordan Pickford be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $123 $0 +0%
Will James Trafford be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $435 $0 +0%
Will Dean Henderson be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $552 +$1 +0%
Will Ivan Toney be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $350 $0 +0%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Vitinha: 1+ goals Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will João Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $257 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Gonçalo Ramos be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $412 $0 +0%
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $188 $0 +0%
Will Bernardo Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Fernandes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $215 $0 +0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $74 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2,630 −$8 -0%
Will Mike Maignan be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $590 +$1 +0%
Will Maxence Lacroix be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $450 $0 +0%
Will Warren Zaïre-Emery be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $280 $0 +0%
Will Brice Samba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $431 $0 +0%
Will Dayot Upamecano be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will Robin Risser be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $143 +$1 +1%
Will Thibaut Courtois be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $2,004 +$2 +0%
Will Alexis Saelemaekers be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Joaquin Seys be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $199 $0 +0%
Will Leandro Trossard be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will Dodi Lukébakio be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Axel Witsel be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Romelu Lukaku be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Carlo Ancelotti be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 15 $246 +$1 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $178 $0 +0%
Will Gavi be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will Joan Garcia be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Glasner be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Zinedine Zidane be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 15 $246 +$1 +0%
Will Víctor Muñoz be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $108 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $105 +$12 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,479 +$21 +1%
Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 42m
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 42m
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 42m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $88 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $696 6h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 6h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $139 6h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $206 6h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $251 6h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 6h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 6h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 6h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 6h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $206 6h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $336 6h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 6h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $100 6h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $118 6h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $200 7h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 7h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $264 8h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,384 8h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 10h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 11h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 99¢ $0 46h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 99¢ $1 46h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 99¢ $1 47h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 99¢ $142 2d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 2d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,286.02 · official $1,286.06 (match) · 2964 history records