Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9C 0x9c9d…4c41 politics 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$3
politics 29% −$4
sports 14% −$1
crypto 11% −$1
culture 10% −$1
world 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$981) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage91d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? Jun 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $1,033 $0 -0%
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 25 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Jun 24 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Jun 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $1,069 $0 +0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 24 $967 −$1 -0%
Anthropic CEO arrested? Jun 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $1,098 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $12 $0 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 18 $4 $0 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $6 $0 -2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 16 $203 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference? Apr 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? Apr 02 $67 $0 -0%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.5 and 4.0%? Apr 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $145 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 26 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Mar 26 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,083 1h
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,035 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $144 2h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 2h
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $772 2h
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $208 2h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 2h
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $981 3h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 100¢ $1,079 22h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $64 22h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $19 22h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $1,033 23h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $29 23h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $17 23h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $16 24h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $745 24h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $221 24h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $31 25h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $967 25h
Anthropic CEO arrested? SELL No 100¢ $46 45h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? SELL No 100¢ $36 45h
Anthropic CEO arrested? BUY No 100¢ $12 45h
Anthropic CEO arrested? BUY No 100¢ $22 46h
Anthropic CEO arrested? BUY No 100¢ $12 46h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? BUY No 100¢ $36 46h
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $771 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records