Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:15:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c9f…7c52 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 705d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,025 (-39%) realized −$996 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%32W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$6
other 31% −$317
politics 29% −$612
sports 2% −$19
culture 2% −$41
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +20.8% +9.3% 50% 50% +15.9%
≤30d 5 +24.9% +13.0% 60% 60% +16.5%
≤90d 24 -7.4% -16.3% 54% 38% +0.5%
all 77 -28.1% -34.9% 42% 32% -44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 32% -44.2%
10% -41.2% 25% -49.6%
15% -46.9% 17% -54.4%
20% -52.1% 9% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$28 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$996
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses32 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)77 / 84
History coverage705d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next? Yes 59¢ 49¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $22 $13 −$9 (-41%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-48%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 57¢ 21¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Yes 55¢ 30¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $3 $0 -11%
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $20 +$6 +30%
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $101 −$5 -5%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 25 $83 +$57 +69%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $12 +$5 +41%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? May 10 $10 +$7 +68%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Apr 29 $30 +$2 +8%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 29 $10 +$5 +50%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? Apr 21 $10 −$8 -75%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 19 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Trump say "Inflation" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $26 +$7 +28%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? Apr 11 $27 −$5 -17%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Apr 07 $13 −$3 -21%
Will JD Vance say "Trump" during meetings with Orbán? Apr 07 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Monday news conference? Apr 06 $31 +$14 +45%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 04 $72 +$11 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 03 $15 −$4 -29%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3? Apr 03 $10 +$1 +7%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 02 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in March? Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? Mar 28 $1 $0 +50%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27? Mar 26 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $10 +$9 +91%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -81%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Mar 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Mar 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
War Powers resolution passes the Senate? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Mar 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out in 2025? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Mar 11 $18 $0 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 04 $20 −$5 -26%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $20 +$35 +178%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 29 $100 −$81 -81%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Dec 29 $30 +$7 +22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 27 $110 +$14 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $35 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 14h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $3 27h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $3 27h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $26 39h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 74¢ $96 39h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $101 3d
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 3d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 22¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $140 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 41d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $17 49d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $17 49d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $5 60d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $41 60d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 60d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $32 60d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $15 60d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $10 66d
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 68d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the SELL Yes 50¢ $7 71d
Will Trump say "Inflation" during Fox interview on Wednesday? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 75d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $11 76d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 77d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 78d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 58¢ $11 81d
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.63 · official $84.63 (match) · 223 history records