Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9C 0x9c9f…ac16 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$23
politics 37% −$21
sports 5% +$8
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 127 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 6% -9.6%
all 132 -0.8% -10.3% 10% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage109d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $381 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $236 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $287 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $293 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $287 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $322 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $291 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $293 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $516 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $263 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $314 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $221 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $645 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $285 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $284 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $327 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $234 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $1,211 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $289 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $290 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $266 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $38 12h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $26 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $26 4d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 5d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 5d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 7d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 7d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $34 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $34 16d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $258 16d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $258 18d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $285 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $285 19d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $315 19d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $315 19d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 20d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 21d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 21d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 21d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 21d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 22d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $287 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 392 history records