Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9ca0…4b69 sports 31 markets active 5d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-5%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$18
world 36% −$2
other 17% −$11
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +16.2% +5.1% 12% 12% -9.6%
≤30d 31 -3.9% -13.1% 19% 19% -14.1%
≤90d 31 -3.9% -13.1% 19% 19% -14.1%
all 31 -3.9% -13.1% 19% 19% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 19% -14.1%
10% -21.4% 16% -22.3%
15% -29.0% 16% -29.8%
20% -36.0% 16% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$5 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 25
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage9d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 14 $14 −$9 -65%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $22 −$5 -25%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$34 +325%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $33 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $125 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $27 +$16 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -10%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $18 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 −$2 -15%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $20 −$4 -22%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $17 −$5 -31%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 -20%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $21 −$20 -98%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 −$4 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $52 −$4 -8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $8 +$18 +226%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $3 +$17 +474%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $8 +$8 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $5 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $21 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY MASONIC 32¢ $17 4d
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY STATE 15¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY MASONIC 42¢ $2 5d
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 69¢ $5 5d
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 70¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $13 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $13 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $38 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 23¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $20 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 62¢ $27 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Houston Astros 35¢ $15 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 44¢ $20 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 66¢ $1 7d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Spurs 24¢ $9 7d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Spurs 38¢ $3 7d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 38¢ $17 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 SELL Under 21¢ $2 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 7d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) SELL Knicks 47¢ $17 7d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 47¢ $18 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records