Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9C 0x9cab…f7c2 sports 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$13,276 (+14%) realized +$13,196 · open +$80
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$2,357per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$21,465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$9,487
14 days+$9,487
30 days+$9,487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$10,086
world 36% +$3,771
politics 16% −$779
economics 11% +$208
sports 1% −$97
crypto 0% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.2% -16.1% 55% 45% +98.4%
≤30d 11 -7.2% -16.1% 55% 45% +98.4%
≤90d 23 +30.4% +17.9% 61% 35% +8.4%
all 33 +20.3% +8.9% 61% 36% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.9% 36% +6.9%
10% ← realistic here -1.5% 30% -3.4%
15% -11.0% 27% -12.7%
20% -19.8% 18% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$2,273) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +47% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$718 vs −$91 · ×7.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.15 per $1 lost it wins $12.15
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$21,465
Realized+$13,196
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage594d
Avg bet$2,357
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $11,320 $11,360 +$40 (+0%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $5,824 $5,855 +$32 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,948 $3,958 +$10 (+0%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $102 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 78¢ $79 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $75 $74 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $29 +$26 +90%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $37 +$13 +36%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $63 +$37 +60%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $56 −$11 -20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $87 +$63 +73%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $6,088 +$9,478 +156%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 19 $1,513 +$4 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $1,020 +$60 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $10,030 +$175 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 19 $1,482 +$21 +1%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $2,273 +$383 +17%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $9,785 +$245 +2%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 12 $2,926 −$737 -25%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 11 $1 +$9 +865%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 02 $9,642 +$197 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $1 $0 -28%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Apr 27 $159 −$45 -29%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15? Apr 25 $7 −$4 -48%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 22 $11,260 +$1,411 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 21 $6,286 +$2,095 +33%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 12 $287 +$11 +4%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $9,035 −$45 -0%
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? Mar 08 $294 +$123 +42%
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 07 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Jan 28 $25 −$11 -44%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 202 Jan 23 $4 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $986 17m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,972 17m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $79 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $76 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $103 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $644 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $301 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $454 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $148 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $148 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $148 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $148 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $103 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $593 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $11 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $114 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $99 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $5 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $4 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $600 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $1,367 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $747 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,465.34 · official $21,461.34 (match) · 458 history records