Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:04:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cac…2d4e other 98 markets active 16h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate14%13W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$6
other 37% +$11
sports 9% −$2
crypto 6% −$1
culture 4% $0
world 3% −$2
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.8% -30.1% 20% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 10 -21.4% -28.9% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 -24.1% -31.3% 18% 0% -9.3%
all 95 -9.2% -17.9% 14% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 1% -9.5%
10% -25.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -32.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -39.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 82
Open positions3
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage369d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $97 +$6 +6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $194 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $199 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $103 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 31 $209 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $103 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1 $0 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $105 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 27 $3 $0 -12%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $1 $0 +4%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $105 $0 -0%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 29 $197 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 27 $205 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $104 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 22 $108 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $201 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $108 +$1 +1%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Jan 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 01 $1 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $1 $0 -33%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 28 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Dec 23 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $97 +$12 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 09 $1 $0 -17%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 05 $1 $0 -25%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 04 $96 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 30 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 29 $162 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $97 15h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $97 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $98 3d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 10d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $102 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $102 17d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.66 · official $104.66 (match) · 410 history records