trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 14 | -92.6% | -93.3% | 7% | 0% | -97.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -93.3% | 0% | -97.4% |
| 10% | -94.0% | 0% | -97.7% |
| 15% | -94.6% | 0% | -97.9% |
| 20% | -95.1% | 0% | -98.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $71 | $66 | −$5 (-7%) |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $1 | −$9 (-88%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by April 30? | Apr 05 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | Feb 17 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Trump out as President in 2025? | Nov 07 | $33 | −$33 | -100% |
| Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by October 31? | Oct 19 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Oct 10 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| Luigi Mangione mistrial? | Sep 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30? | Sep 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Trump out as President by September 30? | Sep 12 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will another movie gross most in 2024? | May 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Trump signs national abortion ban? | May 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? | May 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will someone else be inaugurated? | May 08 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |