Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9cb2…4d80 sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$701 (+11%) realized +$686 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%55W / 37L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days+$514
14 days+$704
30 days+$721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$881
other 45% +$48
world 4% −$143
crypto 2% −$104
tech 1% +$10
politics 1% +$14
economics 1% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +27.2% +15.0% 69% 69% +2.2%
≤30d 59 +21.8% +10.2% 64% 64% +3.8%
≤90d 83 +9.5% -1.0% 60% 60% +1.9%
all 92 +7.0% -3.2% 60% 59% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 59% +0.5%
10% -12.5% 55% -9.1%
15% -20.9% 48% -17.9%
20% -28.7% 38% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$49 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$704
Realized+$686
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses55 / 37
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions6
Markets (closed)92 / 98
History coverage375d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 74¢ $340 $367 +$27 (+8%)
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 76¢ 62¢ $114 $92 −$22 (-19%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $87 $89 +$2 (+3%)
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 75¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+54%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $74 $69 −$5 (-7%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 27¢ 10¢ $24 $9 −$15 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $484 −$484 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $323 +$176 +54%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $82 +$140 +172%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $106 +$78 +73%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $72 +$123 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $127 −$127 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 +$31 +60%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $127 +$105 +82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $222 +$83 +38%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 23 $17 −$6 -33%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $651 +$151 +23%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$35 +70%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $62 +$40 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $272 +$142 +52%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $70 +$86 +123%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $31 +$48 +158%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $91 +$46 +51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $89 +$42 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $131 +$65 +49%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$111 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $50 +$15 +29%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$34 +51%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$26 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$44 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $61 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $3 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $4 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $42 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $4 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $0 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $0 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $0 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $0 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $0 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $0 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $0 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $68 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $75 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $11 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $11 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $93 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $499 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $222 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 6h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $323 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $357 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $106 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $704.02 · official $704.48 (match) · 249 history records