Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9C 0x9cb3…a65b other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$117 (+17%) realized +$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +15.7% +4.6% 67% 67% +3.9%
≤30d 6 +15.7% +4.6% 67% 67% +3.9%
≤90d 6 +15.7% +4.6% 67% 67% +3.9%
all 6 +15.7% +4.6% 67% 67% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 67% +3.9%
10% -5.4% 50% -6.0%
15% -14.5% 50% -15.1%
20% -22.9% 33% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$64 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $108 +$97 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $138 −$107 -78%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$20 -39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $211 +$25 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 +$39 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 89¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 45¢ $78 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 29¢ $31 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 41¢ $16 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $211 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $38 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records