Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9C 0x9cb4…8285 sports 669 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (254 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$100,273 (+66%) realized +$100,435 · open −$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%385W / 239L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day254.5pace
Fees−$940est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3,335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$2,196
other 36% +$1,624
crypto 2% −$36
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (254 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 444 +13.2% +2.4% 61% 51% -6.6%
≤30d 624 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 51% -7.1%
≤90d 624 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 51% -7.1%
all 624 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 51% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover254.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 51% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 40% -16.0%
15% -18.7% 29% -24.1%
20% -26.6% 21% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$113 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$3,335
Realized+$100,435
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses385 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$940
Open positions53
Markets (closed)624 / 669
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$229
Trades / day254.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 624 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $519 $512 −$7 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 44¢ 46¢ $316 $324 +$7 (+2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 87¢ 88¢ $159 $162 +$3 (+2%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 32¢ $130 $141 +$11 (+9%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Under 7¢ 12¢ $75 $135 +$59 (+79%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $129 $132 +$2 (+2%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Under 16¢ 16¢ $128 $128 +$0 (+0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 58¢ 57¢ $122 $120 −$2 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 45¢ 46¢ $108 $109 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 8¢ $114 $107 −$7 (-6%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 74¢ 72¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Diane Parry 78¢ 92¢ $78 $93 +$15 (+19%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 50¢ 50¢ $85 $87 +$1 (+2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 62¢ $64 $76 +$12 (+19%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 80¢ 78¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 10¢ 10¢ $65 $62 −$3 (-5%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 30¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Under 80¢ 83¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 49¢ 55¢ $44 $49 +$5 (+11%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 68¢ 69¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 83¢ 80¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? No 83¢ 82¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 34¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $788 −$777 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $122 +$34 +28%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 +$44 +1329%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $211 +$20 +10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $181 −$10 -5%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $44 +$3 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $342 +$3 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $165 −$16 -10%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $89 +$87 +98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $246 +$82 +33%
Will Botafogo FC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -99%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $75 −$64 -85%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $455 −$365 -80%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,086 +$29 +3%
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $114 −$113 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $366 +$71 +19%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $27 −$10 -38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $134 +$4 +3%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $11 +$10 +93%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $49 +$26 +53%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $42 +$80 +190%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $57 −$23 -40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $14 +$8 +56%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $118 +$49 +42%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $295 −$293 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $134 +$57 +43%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $63 +$135 +212%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $176 +$4 +2%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $30 +$12 +40%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $537 +$156 +29%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $179 −$116 -65%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $156 +$23 +14%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $134 +$27 +20%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $146 +$70 +48%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $26 +$10 +37%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $133 +$18 +13%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 14 $14 +$2 +18%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $11 +$10 +90%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$16 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $17 4m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $14 53m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $258 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $258 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $22 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $22 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $12 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $8 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $8 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $28 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $25 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $25 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $9 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $12 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 44¢ $249 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 44¢ $1 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 44¢ $18 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $47 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 31¢ $7 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 31¢ $4 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 31¢ $4 2h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 26¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 32¢ $16 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 32¢ $9 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $6 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $22 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $16 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,334.98 · official $3,335.02 (match) · 3500 history records