Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9C 0x9cb9…8c4c other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1 (+2%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +51.4% +37.0% 14% 14% +26.7%
≤30d 7 +51.4% +37.0% 14% 14% +26.7%
≤90d 7 +51.4% +37.0% 14% 14% +26.7%
all 7 +51.4% +37.0% 14% 14% +26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.0% 14% +26.7%
10% +23.9% 14% +14.5%
15% +11.9% 14% +3.5%
20% +0.9% 14% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$8 · ×8.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $7 +$70 +960%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $77 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 4h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records