Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cba…b829 crypto 216 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (210 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$634 (+9%) realized +$634 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%74W / 142L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day209.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$326
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (210 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -10.1% -18.7% 34% 32% -5.1%
≤30d 216 -10.1% -18.7% 34% 32% -5.1%
≤90d 216 -10.1% -18.7% 34% 32% -5.1%
all 216 -10.1% -18.7% 34% 32% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover209.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 32% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 31% -14.2%
15% -33.5% 28% -22.5%
20% -40.1% 25% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$26 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$634
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses74 / 142
Open positions0
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage4d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day209.8
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 216 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$44 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$107 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$9 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $83 +$105 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$18 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$97 +216%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$42 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$17 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$7 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$18 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $89 +$19 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$24 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $135 +$211 +156%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$25 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $24 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $22 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $156 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $29 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.30 · official $22.30 (match) · 1063 history records