Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cbf…4a53 crypto 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-11%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%100W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$154
sports 1% −$8
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +125.6% +104.1% 50% 50% +109.6%
≤30d 39 -30.8% -37.4% 36% 31% -34.8%
≤90d 274 -11.9% -20.3% 36% 34% -22.2%
all 274 -11.9% -20.3% 36% 34% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 34% -22.2%
10% -27.9% 33% -29.7%
15% -34.9% 31% -36.5%
20% -41.3% 27% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses100 / 174
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)274 / 274
History coverage61d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 274 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 05 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $22 −$9 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 05 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$15 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 05 $18 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$7 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 05 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$2 -66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $12 +$7 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 12 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 11 $1 +$6 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 10 $4 +$14 +330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 974 history records