Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9cc0…7faa crypto 934 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,582 (+3%) realized +$1,599 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%417W / 514L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$869est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$162
7 days−$697
14 days−$677
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$1,201
crypto 11% −$769
other 2% −$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -30.0% -36.7% 33% 33% -31.2%
≤30d 153 -13.7% -22.0% 40% 39% -9.1%
≤90d 931 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 42% -9.2%
all 931 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 42% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 42% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 38% -17.9%
15% -34.1% 35% -25.8%
20% -40.5% 30% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$49 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$1,599
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses417 / 514
Est. fees paid−$869
Open positions2
Markets (closed)931 / 934
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$58
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 931 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ 46¢ $108 $91 −$17 (-15%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 332 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $55 +$56 +103%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $54 −$53 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $110 −$109 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $55 −$54 -99%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $231 −$210 -91%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $111 +$121 +109%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $332 −$326 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $363 −$32 -9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $258 +$106 +41%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $137 −$77 -56%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $200 +$135 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $313 −$105 -34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $197 +$117 +59%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $201 −$198 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $196 +$202 +103%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $195 −$192 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $502 −$494 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $305 −$299 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $70 −$69 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $302 −$298 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $101 −$99 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $110 +$96 +88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $179 −$38 -21%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $152 +$118 +78%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $387 +$566 +146%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $254 +$299 +118%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $49 +$43 +88%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $69 −$68 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $203 +$168 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $538 +$767 +143%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $58 −$57 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $300 +$198 +66%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $302 −$297 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $159 −$157 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $273 +$287 +105%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $28 −$27 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $178 −$175 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $101 +$84 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $110 30m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 36m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 93¢ $111 38m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 45¢ $55 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 27¢ $54 28h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $56 30h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $110 46h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $55 2d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 37¢ $21 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Toronto Blue Jays $21 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $231 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL New York Mets 95¢ $0 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL New York Mets 96¢ $231 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 45¢ $111 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $332 4d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $332 4d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $363 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 75¢ $364 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $258 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 22¢ $60 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $137 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $335 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $200 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $199 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $313 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $314 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $197 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $201 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $397 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $196 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.57 · official $94.54 · 3500 history records