Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cc0…48a9 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23 (-5%) realized −$35 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$18
sports 14% −$39
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -19.4% -27.1% 55% 36% -15.8%
≤30d 11 -19.4% -27.1% 55% 36% -15.8%
≤90d 11 -19.4% -27.1% 55% 36% -15.8%
all 11 -19.4% -27.1% 55% 36% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 36% -15.8%
10% -34.1% 9% -23.9%
15% -40.5% 9% -31.2%
20% -46.3% 9% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$19 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 22¢ 70¢ $6 $18 +$12 (+220%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 +$20 +173%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$34 -67%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $137 +$12 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $86 +$11 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 +$10 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $40 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $32 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $32 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 54¢ $16 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $17 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $28 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $15 8h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $105 16h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $51 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $44 27h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $44 27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 86¢ $19 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 86¢ $21 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 91¢ $26 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 91¢ $1 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 91¢ $18 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 98¢ $34 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.41 · official $25.41 (match) · 36 history records