Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cc6…3dc7 world 19 markets active 14h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-5%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$14
other 14% $0
finance 11% $0
politics 4% −$2
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.5% -20.8% 25% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 8 -12.5% -20.8% 25% 0% -14.9%
≤90d 8 -12.5% -20.8% 25% 0% -14.9%
all 19 -5.6% -14.6% 53% 0% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -14.0%
10% -22.8% 0% -22.2%
15% -30.2% 0% -29.7%
20% -37.1% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage468d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $9 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 19 $11 $0 +3%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Un Mar 06 $13 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $14 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $8 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $6 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $6 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $8 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 44h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $35 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $17 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $16 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $32 6d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY No 98¢ $1 355d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $9 355d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? BUY No 97¢ $2 387d
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? BUY No 99¢ $1 408d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records