trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +7.4% | -2.8% | 25% | 25% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +7.4% | -2.8% | 25% | 25% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +3.2% | -6.6% | 11% | 11% | -9.6% |
| all | 27 | -4.0% | -13.1% | 44% | 26% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.1% | 26% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -21.5% | 19% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -29.0% | 11% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -36.0% | 7% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | Yes | 78¢ | 40¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-48%) |
| Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 23 | $140 | $0 | -0% |
| Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 23 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 23 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league? | Jun 23 | $4 | +$1 | +30% |
| Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | May 02 | $400 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? | May 02 | $110 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Apr 11 | $242 | $0 | -0% |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 11 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Apr 11 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Feb 20 | $75 | $0 | -0% |
| Over $200K committed to the Foresee public sale? | Feb 18 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Britt Lower (Severance) win Best Actress – Television Drama at th | Feb 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Yakult Brothers (BO1) | Nov 25 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in November? | Nov 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? | Oct 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the Patient Focus (PF) win a seat in Norwegian Election? | Aug 20 | $6 | −$4 | -75% |
| Bird flu pandemic before August 2025? | Aug 04 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Justin Bieber's album "SWAG" debut at #1 in its first week? | Aug 04 | $3 | +$1 | +41% |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year? | May 17 | $3 | $0 | +14% |
| Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | May 17 | $5 | +$5 | +96% |
| Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator? | Jan 22 | $2 | +$1 | +26% |
| Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? | Jan 22 | $6 | +$4 | +64% |
| Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Dec 23 | $352 | −$1 | -0% |
| $300m in $WLFI sold before election? | Nov 08 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran military response by Monday? | Oct 20 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Obama say "Pelosi" at DNC speech? | Aug 31 | $4 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Aug 20 | $194 | −$8 | -4% |