Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9C 0x9ccd…cfcc crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-1%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%40W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$73
crypto 8% +$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 -0.0% -9.5% 74% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -10.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses40 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage544d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in March? Apr 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in February? Mar 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? Jan 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Oct 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $23 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $5,610 −$74 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025? Mar 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Feb 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1? Feb 12 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next German electi Jan 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? Jan 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? Jan 10 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 29d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $38 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 91d
Will BNB reach $800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $44 92d
Will BNB reach $900 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 121d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $42 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $26 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $31 149d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? BUY No 100¢ $50 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $51 211d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $16 241d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $34 242d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $17 271d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 100¢ $34 273d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $20 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $14 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $41 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 362d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 365d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 394d
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? BUY No 99¢ $5 426d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 426d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.37 · official $55.37 (match) · 115 history records