Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9cd2…1d66 crypto 481 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (210 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21,262 (-171%) realized −$21,262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%149W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day209.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,590
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (210 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 -19.7% -27.3% 28% 26% -22.4%
≤30d 481 -16.6% -24.6% 31% 27% -21.1%
≤90d 481 -16.6% -24.6% 31% 27% -21.1%
all 481 -16.6% -24.6% 31% 27% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover209.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 27% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 23% -28.6%
15% -38.4% 19% -35.5%
20% -44.4% 13% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21,262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses149 / 332
Open positions0
Markets (closed)481 / 481
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day209.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 481 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $242 +$114 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $144 +$56 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $314 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $298 +$84 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $120 −$18 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $109 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $68 −$52 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $136 +$64 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $136 +$64 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$25 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $144 +$56 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$9 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$36 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$53 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $156 +$44 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$6 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records