Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9cd4…d5f1 other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$87 (+0%) realized +$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$11
politics 37% −$10
sports 5% +$107
tech 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 +2.7% -7.1% 5% 4% -9.3%
all 124 +5.1% -4.9% 8% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 6% -9.2%
10% -14.0% 6% -17.9%
15% -22.3% 4% -25.8%
20% -30.0% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$0 · ×29.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage117d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $186 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $278 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $347 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $129 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $161 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $299 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $264 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $133 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $137 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $134 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $150 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $140 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $138 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $424 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $131 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $168 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $191 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $141 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $162 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $156 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $160 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $154 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $314 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $355 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $305 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $164 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $324 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 7h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 18h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 22h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 24h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 13d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $22 13d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $22 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 22d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 23d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 23d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 23d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $173 27d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $173 30d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $142 30d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $142 30d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $154 30d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $154 31d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $148 31d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $148 31d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $167 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 381 history records