Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cd5…33cf weather 423 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$250 (+9%) realized +$238 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%263W / 151L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 54% -8.2%
≤30d 354 -7.3% -16.1% 67% 45% -14.6%
≤90d 414 -6.9% -15.8% 64% 43% -17.3%
all 414 -6.9% -15.8% 64% 43% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 43% -17.3%
10% -23.9% 27% -25.2%
15% -31.2% 19% -32.4%
20% -38.0% 15% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$238
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses263 / 151
Open positions9
Markets (closed)414 / 423
History coverage45d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 35¢ 100¢ $6 $18 +$11 (+186%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 62¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$4 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? No 64¢ 74¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? No 86¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? No 81¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? No 80¢ 74¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 79¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15? No 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$5 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $6 +$3 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$5 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 36¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 62¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 35¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 69¢ $6 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 58¢ $6 43h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $6 45h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $6 46h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $6 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $6 47h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $6 47h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.19 · official $64.09 · 760 history records