Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:56:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9C 0x9cd6…77da other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d

TRAPdo not copy

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$1,976 (-37%) realized −$1,980 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip

Net edge-58%after slip

Net WR18%break-even

Win rate18%6W / 27L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$102per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$36est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$720now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$300

7 days−$1,611

14 days−$1,611

30 days−$1,611

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +18%

net ROI/market (all)-58.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-63.7%	-67.1%	15%	15%	-55.9%
≤30d	28	-61.5%	-65.2%	14%	14%	-55.9%
≤90d	28	-61.5%	-65.2%	14%	14%	-55.9%
all	33	-53.8%	-58.2%	18%	18%	-48.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-58.2%	18%	-48.4%
10%	-62.2%	18%	-53.4%
15%	-65.9%	18%	-57.9%
20%	-69.2%	18%	-62.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -54% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -15% → late -90% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$181 vs −$95 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage

Net worth$720

Realized−$1,980

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)18%

Wins / losses6 / 27

Est. fees paid−$36

Open positions9

Markets (closed)33 / 53

History coverage606d

Avg bet$102

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 33 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	59¢	58¢	$267	$265	−$2 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$130	$127	−$3 (-2%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$77	$74	−$3 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$72	$69	−$3 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	13¢	$50	$59	+$9 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$47	$51	+$4 (+8%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$33	$32	−$2 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$20	$25	+$5 (+25%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia?	Yes	4¢	3¢	$21	$20	−$1 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$26	−$25	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$118	−$115	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$164	−$160	-98%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 17	$606	−$600	-99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$102	−$100	-98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$102	−$100	-98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$202	+$131	+65%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 16	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 16	$41	−$40	-98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway?	Jun 16	$41	−$40	-98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$41	−$40	-97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 16	$21	−$20	-97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$407	−$400	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay?	Jun 15	$41	−$40	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$568	−$560	-98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia?	Jun 15	$41	−$40	-97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia?	Jun 15	$21	−$20	-97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$122	+$170	+139%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$81	+$100	+124%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$204	+$518	+253%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?	Jun 14	$41	−$40	-98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan?	Jun 14	$31	−$30	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan?	Jun 14	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 09	$3	$0	-3%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?	Nov 05	$20	−$20	-100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?	Nov 05	$20	−$20	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Nov 05	$5	−$5	-100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?	Nov 05	$10	+$19	+189%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$259	+$150	+58%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco?	BUY Yes	11¢	$34	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$270	1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia?	BUY Yes	4¢	$22	1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$74	1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	13¢	$79	1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$133	1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	3¢	$26	25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	12¢	$118	25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	15¢	$164	25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY	42¢	$305	25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND	BUY	35¢	$135	2d
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY Croatia	69¢	$606	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croati	BUY	11¢	$51	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY	10¢	$51	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croati	BUY	14¢	$51	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	BUY	12¢	$51	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a	BUY	21¢	$51	2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a d	BUY	10¢	$51	2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	41¢	$102	2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	40¢	$102	2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$202	3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	16¢	$41	3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway?	BUY Yes	14¢	$41	3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	12¢	$41	3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY	32¢	$102	3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY	36¢	$102	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	34¢	$204	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	53¢	$203	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $720.33 · official $720.62 (match) · 73 history records