Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:12:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9C 0x9cd7…f4f5 finance 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$23 (-10%) realized −$6 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip

Net edge-64%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Kalshi-fit89%portable

Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-60.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-56.5%	-60.7%	0%	0%	-60.7%
≤30d	1	-56.5%	-60.7%	0%	0%	-60.7%
≤90d	1	-56.5%	-60.7%	0%	0%	-60.7%
all	1	-56.5%	-60.7%	0%	0%	-60.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-60.7%	0%	-60.7%
10%	-64.4%	0%	-64.4%
15%	-67.9%	0%	-67.9%
20%	-71.0%	0%	-71.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -56% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -57% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$6 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$188

Realized−$6

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions8

Markets (closed)1 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	35¢	34¢	$40	$39	−$1 (-1%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on June 29?	Yes	78¢	74¢	$40	$38	−$2 (-4%)
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	40¢	38¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-4%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29?	Down	69¢	58¢	$30	$25	−$5 (-15%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	86¢	77¢	$25	$22	−$3 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	Down	43¢	44¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+1%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes	15¢	13¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-11%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 29?	No	3¢	2¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-54%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29?	Jun 29	$11	−$6	-56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on June 29?	BUY Yes	78¢	$40	16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29?	SELL No	0¢	$5	22m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	SELL Yes	19¢	$23	23m
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Down	43¢	$21	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29?	BUY No	0¢	$11	1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 29?	BUY No	3¢	$10	1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Down	69¢	$30	1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	BUY Yes	35¢	$40	1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY No	86¢	$25	1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	1h
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	BUY No	40¢	$30	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.09 · official $188.10 (match) · 12 history records