Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cdc…25d5 sports 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,059 (-10%) realized −$1,050 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%32W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$461
14 days−$555
30 days−$1,579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,199
other 15% +$26
world 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 39% -24.9%
≤30d 75 -21.7% -29.1% 35% 35% -25.3%
≤90d 83 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 39% -20.5%
all 83 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 39% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 39% -20.5%
10% -28.9% 39% -28.1%
15% -35.8% 35% -35.1%
20% -42.1% 34% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$85 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized−$1,050
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses32 / 51
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage50d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Manuel Torres 51¢ 50¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $225 −$222 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $300 −$78 -26%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $400 −$98 -24%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $83 +$19 +22%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $184 −$100 -54%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $179 −$179 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $75 −$73 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Evans Jun 22 $159 −$159 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 22 $250 +$166 +66%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $52 +$97 +185%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $80 +$150 +188%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $93 −$92 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $133 +$45 +34%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $127 +$64 +50%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $199 +$177 +89%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $127 −$126 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $148 −$23 -15%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $108 −$106 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $149 +$208 +139%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $100 +$252 +252%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $149 −$148 -99%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $54 −$53 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $95 −$94 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $101 −$99 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $98 +$134 +136%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-09? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $123 −$123 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Henri Squire Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-09? Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $142 −$142 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 13 $109 −$109 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $383 +$130 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 51¢ $304 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $225 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 SELL Over 38¢ $222 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $166 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $133 3d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 33¢ $298 3d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 33¢ $5 3d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $400 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $46 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $36 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $83 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 15¢ $75 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 19¢ $0 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $83 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $101 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 50¢ $10 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 47¢ $138 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 47¢ $11 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 47¢ $2 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 47¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.11 · official $291.11 (match) · 292 history records