Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:05:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cdd…c92e world 6 markets active 14d ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$114 (-32%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$129
world 47% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -31.7% -38.2% 50% 33% -38.5%
≤90d 6 -31.7% -38.2% 50% 33% -38.5%
all 6 -31.7% -38.2% 50% 33% -38.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 33% -38.5%
10% -44.1% 0% -44.3%
15% -49.5% 0% -49.7%
20% -54.5% 0% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$43 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $49 +$5 +11%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 11 $69 −$9 -12%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 10 $84 +$9 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 13d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $54 13d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 13d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $23 13d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 SELL Yes 7¢ $18 13d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 SELL Yes 7¢ $17 13d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes 7¢ $18 13d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes 7¢ $17 13d
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 18d
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY Yes 7¢ $35 18d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $61 18d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 18d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 18d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 19d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes 7¢ $29 19d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $4 19d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $89 19d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $41 19d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $42 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records