Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9ce1…4ff0 politics 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% $0
other 25% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 16 -0.1% -9.7% 19% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage103d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $70 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $71 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $71 $0 +0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $72 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $73 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 25 $73 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $73 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $73 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $73 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $70 12h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $70 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $70 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 21d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 21d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $70 31d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $71 32d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $72 35d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $72 35d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $72 38d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $71 38d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 39d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 40d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $73 62d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $73 62d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $73 68d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $73 68d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 73d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 74d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $73 81d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $73 81d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 85d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 87d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $73 93d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $73 94d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 96d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 96d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 97d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records