Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9ce5…9906 crypto 95 markets active 5h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$276 (-8%) realized −$275 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%32W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day44.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$335
14 days−$335
30 days−$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$406
politics 23% +$73
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -14.3% -22.4% 35% 27% -18.4%
≤30d 92 -14.3% -22.4% 35% 27% -18.4%
≤90d 92 -14.3% -22.4% 35% 27% -18.4%
all 92 -14.3% -22.4% 35% 27% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 27% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 20% -26.2%
15% -36.6% 15% -33.4%
20% -42.9% 12% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$275
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses32 / 60
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage8d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 17 $787 +$73 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$29 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$12 +1130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 14h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 16h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $8 23h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $3 23h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.36 · official $1.36 (match) · 438 history records