Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9C 0x9ce7…dcd5 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%71W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$2
other 17% +$1
world 6% +$1
finance 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.5% -24.5% 83% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 19 -5.0% -14.1% 95% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 68 -1.3% -10.7% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 73 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×9.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×348.22 per $1 lost it wins $348.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses71 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage103d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 23? May 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 14? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? May 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 26? Apr 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 11? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 4? Apr 05 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 17h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 14? BUY No 0¢ $0 19h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 44h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $13 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $4 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $17 10d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will White House post 100-119 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 15d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $18 18d
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $17 22d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 29d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $12 31d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 33d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? BUY No 99¢ $7 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? BUY No 99¢ $14 35d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 38d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.07 · official $14.07 (match) · 296 history records