Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9C 0x9ce8…d50d crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$333 (+4%) realized +$334 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$724per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$318
crypto 3% +$14
other 1% +$13
politics 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +11.4% +0.8% 100% 100% +0.8%
≤30d 1 +11.4% +0.8% 100% 100% +0.8%
≤90d 2 +7.8% -2.5% 100% 50% -2.6%
all 10 +29.0% +16.7% 80% 30% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 30% -6.0%
10% +5.6% 20% -15.0%
15% -4.6% 20% -23.2%
20% -14.0% 20% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$672 vs −$2,523 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$334
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage156d
Avg bet$724
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $86 $99 +$13 (+15%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $26 $39 +$14 (+54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $26 $12 −$14 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 23 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? May 18 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 9? Feb 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Feb 09 $18 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 6? Feb 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? Feb 06 $36 $0 +0%
Mavericks vs. Knicks Jan 20 $660 +$2,340 +354%
Celtics vs. Pistons Jan 19 $2,296 −$2,296 -100%
Bucks vs. Hawks Jan 19 $2,750 −$2,750 -100%
Raptors vs. Lakers Jan 19 $2,576 +$3,024 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 90¢ $90 36d
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? BUY No 96¢ $96 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 9? BUY No 99¢ $10 134d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis BUY Yes 98¢ $18 135d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $18 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 148d
Mavericks vs. Knicks BUY Mavericks 22¢ $660 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $1,073 155d
Bucks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 55¢ $461 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $410 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $5 155d
Bucks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 55¢ $24 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $2 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $82 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $13 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $8 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $23 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $496 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $1 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $7 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $6 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $6 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $4 155d
Bucks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 55¢ $367 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $7 155d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Celtics 41¢ $8 155d
Bucks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 55¢ $1 155d
Bucks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 55¢ $50 155d
Bucks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 55¢ $48 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.60 · official $149.60 (match) · 166 history records