Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cec…7acb world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$2
other 23% +$2
world 15% +$3
economics 6% +$1
sports 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.4% -8.3% 33% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 23 -4.2% -13.3% 39% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -2.4% -11.7% 31% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage339d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $9 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $87 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $128 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $140 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 −$3 -10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $88 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $115 +$8 +7%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 21 $108 −$4 -3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $574 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $632 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 01 $576 +$1 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $466 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 30 $574 +$3 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 21 $97 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 21 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 21 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 20 $97 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 20 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25? Jul 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 20 $16 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 20 $83 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 20 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $5 $0 -4%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 19 $96 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $62 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $38 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $100 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $100 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $100 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $60 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $22 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $31 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $81 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $28 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $60 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $53 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records