Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:06:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cec…6866 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate37%31W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$1
politics 25% $0
other 22% +$1
sports 15% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.7% -7.1% 67% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 20 -1.6% -11.0% 45% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 68 -0.3% -9.8% 41% 1% -9.6%
all 83 -1.5% -10.9% 37% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage339d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $28 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $29 −$2 -8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $70 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $93 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $29 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $47 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $32 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $6 −$1 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $34 +$3 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $24 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $38 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 10 $27 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $95 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $12 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $1 $0 +14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $31 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $94 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $28 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $12 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $9 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $9 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $20 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $25 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $29 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $13 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $15 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $29 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $32 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $32 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $32 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $32 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $23 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $28 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $29 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $6 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $9 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $14 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.36 · official $0.00 (match) · 314 history records