Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cfd…9003 crypto 636 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$741 (-2%) realized −$741 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate81%518W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$798
sports 0% −$6
other 0% −$25
politics 0% +$47
world 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -9.8% -18.4% 88% 6% -23.0%
≤30d 16 -9.8% -18.4% 88% 6% -23.0%
≤90d 636 -2.3% -11.6% 81% 18% -11.4%
all 636 -2.3% -11.6% 81% 18% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 18% -11.4%
10% -20.0% 14% -19.9%
15% -27.8% 13% -27.6%
20% -34.8% 12% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$741
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses518 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)636 / 636
History coverage68d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 636 Trades
no open positions (74 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 14 $9 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 14 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 12 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 12 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 12 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 12 $2 +$2 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 32d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $9 32d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1297 history records