Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:12:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cfd…ae1f weather 403 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-2%) realized −$26 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%176W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day99.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$29
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 68% −$1
world 11% −$10
sports 10% −$14
other 4% −$6
culture 3% −$3
politics 3% −$2
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +15.9% +4.9% 50% 46% +1.3%
≤30d 396 -10.6% -19.2% 44% 36% -11.8%
≤90d 396 -10.6% -19.2% 44% 36% -11.8%
all 396 -10.6% -19.2% 44% 36% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 36% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 30% -20.3%
15% -34.0% 21% -28.0%
20% -40.4% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses176 / 220
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)396 / 403
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day99.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $2 $0 -14%
Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Harry Wendelken: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$4 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 -11%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $3 −$1 -19%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -65%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +138%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +96%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 10 $7 $0 -4%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3 $0 -16%
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $4 −$1 -26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -35%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3 $0 -4%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +15%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Jun 10 $4 $0 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $8 −$2 -27%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 10 $8 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$4 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut SELL CYBERSHOKE Esports 34¢ $2 28m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 32m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL No 73¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $4 1h
Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Harry Wendelken: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 29¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) SELL Navarro 50¢ $2 2h
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 51¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 52¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 55¢ $3 4h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 35¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 33¢ $2 5h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 47¢ $2 5h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 34¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL TDK 50¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 61¢ $3 6h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY TDK 56¢ $3 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 17¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Cloud Rising 17¢ $1 7h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 47¢ $2 7h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $5 7h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 65¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $3 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 13h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 25¢ $1 13h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 32¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY G2 Ares 34¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.40 · official $8.40 (match) · 1134 history records