Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cfe…134c other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$27
14 days−$36
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$22
other 26% −$28
sports 18% −$19
crypto 6% −$6
culture 5% −$3
world 5% −$8
economics 4% −$4
tech 2% −$5
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 62 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 110 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.1%
all 126 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 111
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage103d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $626 −$9 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $123 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $66 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $362 −$7 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $126 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $79 −$1 -2%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $167 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $166 −$3 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $88 −$1 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $41 −$1 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $83 −$5 -6%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $49 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $54 $0 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 07 $58 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $231 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 06 $55 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $93 −$2 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $55 −$4 -7%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $385 −$1 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $57 −$3 -6%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $108 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $155 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $44 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $71 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $72 9h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $73 10h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $73 14h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $66 15h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 18h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 19h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $73 19h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $75 26h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $73 27h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $74 35h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $71 35h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $71 41h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 42h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $71 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $72 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $74 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $74 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $77 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $79 2d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 3d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 3d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $54 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $55 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.36 · official $28.36 (match) · 517 history records