Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cfe…294c other 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,316 (-22%) realized −$4,349 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%38W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$887
14 days+$587
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$2,522
world 26% −$925
sports 24% −$74
crypto 10% −$1,298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +42.1% +28.6% 29% 29% +36.1%
≤30d 40 +6.8% -3.4% 22% 22% -8.2%
≤90d 144 -14.4% -22.5% 24% 23% -25.7%
all 163 -20.6% -28.2% 23% 21% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 21% -35.4%
10% -35.0% 21% -41.6%
15% -41.3% 21% -47.2%
20% -47.1% 20% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$97 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$4,349
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses38 / 125
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage146d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $222 $255 +$33 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$120 +233%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$123 +121%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $221 −$216 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$189 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$7 -20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$32 -16%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $71 −$5 -8%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $46 +$300 +649%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 +$44 +43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $246 +$89 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $58 −$30 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$26 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $60 +$927 +1555%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $36 −$35 -97%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Denmark 3 - 2 Ukraine? Jun 07 $93 −$90 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $194 −$190 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $265 −$258 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $68 −$40 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 01 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$37 +142%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 3 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 3 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 18 $102 +$325 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 18 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 19? May 18 $160 −$150 -94%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $208 −$199 -96%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $131 −$128 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $23 7m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $171 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $225 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $68 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $27 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.32 · official $275.75 · 598 history records