Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9C 0x9cff…8fa3 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$97 (+23%) realized +$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.4% -1.9% 47% 33% +11.5%
≤30d 15 +8.4% -1.9% 47% 33% +11.5%
≤90d 15 +8.4% -1.9% 47% 33% +11.5%
all 15 +8.4% -1.9% 47% 33% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 33% +11.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 27% +0.8%
15% -19.9% 27% -8.9%
20% -27.7% 13% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$12 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$140 +439%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$27 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $56 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$15 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $171 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records