Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d06…c4e8 politics 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$564 (-5%) realized −$594 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate38%36W / 58L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day49.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$409
14 days+$403
30 days+$723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$836
politics 29% −$9
other 18% +$81
sports 0% +$4
economics 0% +$83
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +8.3% -2.0% 48% 10% +1.6%
≤30d 53 +0.9% -8.7% 38% 9% +1.9%
≤90d 94 +6.6% -3.5% 38% 11% +2.9%
all 94 +6.6% -3.5% 38% 11% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 11% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 10% -6.9%
15% -21.2% 7% -15.9%
20% -28.9% 4% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$1 · ×32.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.13 per $1 lost it wins $20.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$2,744
Realized−$594
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 58
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions45
Markets (closed)94 / 135
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$91
Trades / day49.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $314 $335 +$21 (+7%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $267 $269 +$2 (+1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 88¢ 86¢ $184 $179 −$5 (-3%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $170 $168 −$2 (-1%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 90¢ $160 $154 −$6 (-4%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 88¢ $146 $150 +$5 (+3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+3%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+2%)
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $70 $73 +$3 (+5%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $66 $72 +$6 (+9%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 96¢ 96¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $62 $64 +$2 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $53 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $49 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 87¢ 80¢ $51 $47 −$4 (-8%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 85¢ 85¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $18 $0 -1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $291 +$3 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam Jun 21 $38 $0 -1%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 21 $41 +$2 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 20 $24 $0 -2%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, Jun 20 $16 $0 -1%
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Jun 19 $159 +$2 +1%
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 -1%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $494 +$11 +2%
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? Jun 18 $7 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 18 $37 −$1 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $43 −$1 -2%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 17 $250 +$7 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $835 +$318 +38%
US x China Military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $31 +$39 +125%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 14 $845 +$29 +3%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 -2%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 13 $43 +$2 +5%
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the second most s Jun 12 $11 −$8 -72%
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 07 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2 Jun 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 07 $148 $0 -0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 04 $133 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $474 +$82 +17%
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Jun 02 $18 $0 -1%
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? Jun 02 $29 $0 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 40% and 45% of votes in the May 31 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win at least 45% of votes in the first r May 31 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats May 31 $44 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $126 +$30 +24%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? May 30 $26 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 28 $35 −$2 -5%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $20 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? May 27 $145 −$2 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 26 $629 +$239 +38%
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? May 26 $17 −$14 -82%
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? May 26 $25 −$9 -34%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 25 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $26 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 SELL No 90¢ $1 29m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 84¢ $18 52m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $10 53m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $7 53m
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $9 3h
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam SELL Yes 96¢ $38 6h
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam BUY Yes 96¢ $38 6h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 8h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 8h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 SELL No 90¢ $1 9h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 12h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 85¢ $10 12h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 85¢ $14 12h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 12h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 12h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 12h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $35 12h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 12h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 89¢ $15 12h
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 13h
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $0 14h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $28 14h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $12 14h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 18h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 18h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $20 18h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,744.36 · official $2,742.28 (match) · 3500 history records