Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d07…1f77 other 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$20
politics 33% −$17
sports 9% −$29
world 4% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 147 -2.6% -11.9% 9% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage126d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $284 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $271 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $291 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $245 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $828 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,215 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $225 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $249 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $272 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $434 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $225 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $480 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $209 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $254 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 10 $437 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $259 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $199 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $676 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $283 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $268 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $290 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $263 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $399 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $229 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $32 19h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 19h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 12d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 18d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 18d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 19d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 19d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 19d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 20d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 20d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.98 · official $45.98 (match) · 456 history records