Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d09…b490 crypto 589 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,212 (-45%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%152W / 437L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day93.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$253
14 days−$253
30 days−$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$89
other 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 295 -31.3% -37.9% 39% 33% -32.1%
≤30d 298 -31.6% -38.1% 39% 33% -36.9%
≤90d 589 -25.3% -32.4% 26% 23% -23.8%
all 589 -25.3% -32.4% 26% 23% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.4% 23% -23.8%
10% ← realistic here -38.9% 13% -31.1%
15% -44.8% 11% -37.8%
20% -50.2% 10% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses152 / 437
Open positions0
Markets (closed)589 / 589
History coverage31d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day93.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 589 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records