Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:41:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9D 0x9d09…86a2 crypto 1751 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,318 (+11%) realized −$2,148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate76%1648W / 518L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day53.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,364
7 days−$2,316
14 days−$2,296
30 days−$2,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$326
world 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 981 -43.0% -48.4% 53% 6% -47.0%
≤30d 2029 -19.5% -27.1% 75% 9% -25.2%
≤90d 2166 -18.1% -25.9% 76% 10% -23.5%
all 2166 -18.1% -25.9% 76% 10% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 10% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 4% -30.8%
15% -39.4% 2% -37.5%
20% -45.4% 1% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1648 / 518
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2166 / 1751
History coverage34d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day53.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 1PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records