Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9d13…a252 sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,229 (-5%) realized −$1,263 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%62W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$144
other 25% +$4
politics 13% −$488
world 3% −$565
crypto 2% +$67
tech 2% −$183
culture 1% +$165
economics 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +126.0% +104.5% 40% 40% -6.6%
≤90d 95 -56.0% -60.2% 15% 15% -57.0%
all 151 -4.7% -13.8% 41% 40% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 40% -14.4%
10% -22.0% 39% -22.6%
15% -29.6% 37% -30.1%
20% -36.5% 33% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$118 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$1,263
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses62 / 89
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage523d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Call of Duty: Carolina Royal Ravens vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs Carolina Royal Ravens 34¢ 44¢ $117 $152 +$34 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $143 −$140 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $346 +$140 +40%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $15 +$137 +890%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 11 $127 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag May 10 $75 −$75 -99%
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner May 10 $87 +$176 +203%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $94 −$92 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 09 $128 +$381 +298%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 08 $118 −$115 -98%
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty May 03 $128 +$111 +86%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag May 03 $132 −$130 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) May 03 $128 +$264 +206%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Lea Apr 24 $62 −$62 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Apr 18 $128 −$126 -99%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5) Apr 13 $79 −$77 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 13 $44 +$34 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 13 $37 +$7 +19%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $70 −$68 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $110 −$107 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 11 $50 +$98 +197%
Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Apr 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 219.5 Apr 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP (BO3) Apr 11 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? Apr 11 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Bulls Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 11 $150 −$150 -100%
Pacers vs. Timberwolves Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Apr 11 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Trump say "Eight wars" during C5+1 Summit on November 6? Apr 11 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 4+ times during C5+1 Summit on Novem Apr 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Clippers vs. Wizards Apr 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Apr 11 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Apr 11 $249 −$249 -100%
Rockets vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5 Apr 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-10-23? Apr 11 $50 −$50 -100%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Apr 11 $279 −$279 -100%
Jazz vs. Pistons Apr 11 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) Apr 11 $140 −$140 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Heroic (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Apr 11 $118 −$118 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Apr 11 $1,648 −$260 -16%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during K Apr 11 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: Carolina Royal Ravens vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 34¢ $120 1h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 20¢ $143 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $143 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $142 13d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Boston Breach 35¢ $23 13d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Boston Breach 35¢ $25 13d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Boston Breach 35¢ $1 13d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Boston Breach 15¢ $0 13d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Boston Breach 4¢ $0 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $50 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 13d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 1 Winner BUY Boston Breach 20¢ $13 13d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 1 Winner BUY Boston Breach 20¢ $25 13d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 1 Winner BUY Boston Breach 20¢ $13 13d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 1 Winner BUY Boston Breach 20¢ $16 13d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le SELL FaZe Vegas 99¢ $153 13d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 10¢ $4 13d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 10¢ $4 13d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 10¢ $7 13d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner BUY FaZe 39¢ $127 46d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FaZe 30¢ $51 46d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Cloud9 New York 10¢ $14 46d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Cloud9 New York 10¢ $11 46d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Cloud9 New York 9¢ $11 46d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Cloud9 New York 9¢ $17 46d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Cloud9 New York 13¢ $13 46d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Cloud9 New York 13¢ $4 46d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Cloud9 New York 9¢ $5 46d
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL LOUD 99¢ $263 46d
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY LOUD 32¢ $87 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.64 · official $148.20 · 415 history records