Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d19…a703 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$210 (+5%) realized +$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$731per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$134
other 17% −$133
crypto 14% +$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.9% -27.5% 50% 33% -10.6%
≤30d 6 -19.9% -27.5% 50% 33% -10.6%
≤90d 6 -19.9% -27.5% 50% 33% -10.6%
all 6 -19.9% -27.5% 50% 33% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 33% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 17% -19.1%
15% -40.8% 17% -26.9%
20% -46.6% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$153 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$731
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,460 −$243 -17%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 23 $1,576 +$109 +7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $304 −$198 -65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $599 +$217 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $430 +$83 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Senegal 66¢ $598 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $34 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $2 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $9 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $9 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $67 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $2 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $45 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $18 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $37 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $33 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $91 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $1 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $29 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $46 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $26 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $10 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $36 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $16 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $10 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $89 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $2 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Senegal 66¢ $618 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 90¢ $849 2h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 84¢ $0 2h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 81¢ $2 2h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 81¢ $5 2h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 81¢ $5 2h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 81¢ $5 2h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 81¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records