Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9d1c…e5c3 world 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-2%) realized −$9 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$508per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$6
other 27% −$52
world 27% −$23
politics 9% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -3.3% -12.5% 25% 0% -10.0%
all 4 -3.3% -12.5% 25% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$897
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage99d
Avg bet$508
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 85¢ $820 $768 −$52 (-6%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $130 $129 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $18 −$3 -16%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $1,152 −$6 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 20 $665 −$19 -3%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 02 $264 +$16 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $130 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $820 59d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 62d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 74¢ $893 62d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 75¢ $896 65d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? SELL Yes 68¢ $646 67d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? BUY Yes 70¢ $665 70d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t SELL Yes 70¢ $280 85d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 66¢ $264 88d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 79¢ $253 94d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 80¢ $256 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $897.15 · official $897.15 (match) · 78 history records