Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9D 0x9d1e…9e97 crypto 1495 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,865 (+4%) realized −$4,838 · open +$7,703
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate81%1209W / 282L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18,764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$513
sports 27% +$10,765
other 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.2% -17.9% 45% 45% +30.0%
≤30d 43 -11.9% -20.3% 40% 40% +23.2%
≤90d 1491 -3.0% -12.2% 81% 23% -5.7%
all 1491 -3.0% -12.2% 81% 23% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 23% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 7% -14.7%
15% -28.3% 4% -22.9%
20% -35.3% 3% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$22 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$18,764
Realized−$4,838
Unrealized+$7,703
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1209 / 282
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1491 / 1495
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1491 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Under 47¢ 99¢ $6,372 $13,419 +$7,047 (+111%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 46¢ 100¢ $1,794 $3,899 +$2,105 (+117%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Under 43¢ 80¢ $660 $1,221 +$561 (+85%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Over 18¢ 20¢ $159 $181 +$22 (+14%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ $1,515 $44 −$1,471 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $655 −$646 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $761 +$709 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,356 +$648 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $642 +$694 +108%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $791 −$780 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $151 −$147 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,019 +$1,684 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $931 +$784 +84%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $93 −$91 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $64 +$213 +331%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $16 −$15 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $176 +$268 +152%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $574 −$118 -20%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $134 +$125 +93%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $110 +$139 +127%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $97 −$95 -98%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $149 −$147 -99%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $69 −$68 -98%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $99 −$97 -98%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $6 +$6 +105%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $6 +$6 +106%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $229 +$73 +32%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
FC Cajamarca vs. Club Alianza Lima: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $8 +$8 +93%
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $9 +$6 +69%
CD Palestino vs. Audax CS Italiano: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $7 −$7 -99%
CD Los Chankas vs. CU Técnica de Cajamarca: O/U 2.5 May 31 $7 −$7 -98%
CD Huachipato vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 1.5 May 31 $8 −$8 -98%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 May 31 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Cádiz CF (-1.5) May 31 $3 −$2 -98%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $7 +$7 +97%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $7 +$8 +109%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $7 −$7 -98%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 4.5 May 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Wuhan San Zhen FC (-1.5) May 23 $70 −$44 -63%
CD Moquegua vs. Club Universitario de Deportes: O/U 2.5 May 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Cuiabá EC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $6 +$10 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 17 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 17 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 17 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $163 5m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $671 27m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $6,473 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1,823 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,538 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $655 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $642 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $761 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $1,356 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $791 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under $151 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $1,019 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $931 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $93 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $16 7d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $64 7d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $6 7d
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $176 9d
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $383 9d
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $190 9d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $97 10d
Croatia vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $110 10d
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $149 10d
Kosovo vs. Andorra: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $69 10d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $134 10d
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $99 10d
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 94¢ $13 11d
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,764.01 · official $18,764.01 (match) · 3500 history records