Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d1e…2e5a other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$8
world 34% −$6
politics 12% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% +$1
culture 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 13 -12.3% -20.7% 38% 0% -13.4%
all 41 -5.7% -14.7% 39% 2% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 2% -11.5%
10% -22.9% 0% -20.0%
15% -30.3% 0% -27.7%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage471d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $45 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $70 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $41 −$6 -16%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $21 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $50 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5 +$1 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 01 $1 $0 -6%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Mar 31 $9 −$5 -55%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August? Aug 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 245–259 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 10 $12 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 05 $0 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $105K on July 4? Jul 03 $11 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 19? Mar 21 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 18 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $46 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 12h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $45 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $23 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $24 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $21 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $26 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $25 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $34 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $34 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $4 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $43 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.58 · official $45.58 (match) · 122 history records