Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d23…58e6 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-10%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$1
other 38% −$4
world 6% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 33% -32.2%
≤30d 6 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 33% -32.2%
≤90d 6 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 33% -32.2%
all 6 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 33% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.5% 33% -32.2%
10% -54.4% 33% -38.7%
15% -58.8% 33% -44.6%
20% -62.8% 17% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Over 82¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 64¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $2 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $4 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 16h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.74 · official $27.74 (match) · 17 history records