Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9D 0x9d29…fd7b other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$457 (+18%) realized +$430 · open +$27
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%24W / 19L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$456
world 26% −$151
politics 20% +$133
finance 1% +$19
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 29% +24.4%
≤30d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 29% +24.4%
≤90d 24 +12.9% +2.1% 46% 46% -6.0%
all 43 +34.1% +21.3% 56% 56% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.3% 56% +11.7%
10% +9.7% 53% +1.0%
15% -0.9% 53% -8.7%
20% -10.6% 44% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$24 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$710
Realized+$430
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses24 / 19
Open positions11
Markets (closed)43 / 56
History coverage610d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $315 $409 +$94 (+30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $244 $195 −$49 (-20%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? No 47¢ 60¢ $40 $51 +$11 (+27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $18 −$3 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+73%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $9 −$4 (-34%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? Yes $20 $1 −$19 (-96%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -14%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3 +$3 +114%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 27 $30 +$37 +123%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 $0 -9%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 01 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 01 $5 +$4 +74%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 01 $80 +$53 +67%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $5 +$13 +258%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $5 +$8 +158%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 13 $65 +$66 +102%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $500 −$289 -58%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? Apr 06 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Super Bowl LX have at least 140M viewers? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get at least 15 Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125 Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 01 $17 +$20 +120%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $35 +$19 +54%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 01 $217 +$250 +115%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 26 $9 +$41 +457%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $66 +$67 +101%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $9 +$13 +146%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M Feb 17 $5 +$5 +100%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Karol G perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 08 $3 $0 +15%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 08 $1 +$1 +74%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Feb 01 $200 +$94 +47%
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31? Jan 29 $9 −$9 -95%
Maduro guilty of all counts? Jan 10 $7 $0 -5%
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? Jan 09 $10 +$4 +42%
Maduro mugshot released by January 9? Jan 09 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Jan 09 $34 −$6 -18%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Jan 05 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 06 $23 +$62 +267%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $256 +$122 +48%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $80 −$3 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 55m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $67 1h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $41 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY $8 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14 BUY 24¢ $5 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14 BUY 24¢ $5 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 46d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 56d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 56d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 56d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 56d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 64d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 65d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 67d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 67d
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $10 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $710.45 · official $710.45 (match) · 241 history records